RESULTS of the State of the Game Survey: September 2020
Hi all, It’s time for the results! Thank you to everyone who took the time to respond - we had over 1,750 responses, which is great! These insights wouldn’t be possible without your time and support. As always, neither myself nor this survey are associated with Intelligent Systems or Nintendo in any way. Please direct feedback about the game itself to the official channels. Now let’s get into it!
PreviousSurveyResults: April_2020_State_of_the_Game_Survey ~ Demographics ~ 53.8% began playing FE:H in February 2017, with 20.0% more joining during the first year of the game. 12.0% of respondents joined during the second year, 8.7% joined during the third, and 4.0% joined during the fourth year (the last ~7 months). The age range breakdown of respondents is as follows:
(2.6%) 12 – 15 years old
(15.0 %) 16 – 18 years old
(23.4 %) 19 – 21 years old
(21.8 %) 22 – 24 years old
(25.8 %) 25 – 30 years old
(8.2 %) 31 – 40 years old
(1.0 %) 40+ years old
75.8% of respondents identified as Male, 18.4% as Female, and 3.0% as Non-binary. 24.6% of respondents have never missed a daily login, while a further 38.8% have missed less than a month’s worth of logins, 11.7% missed 1-2 months, 9.9% missed 3-6 months, 5.8% missed 7-12 months, and 4.7% missed over a year’s worth. 33.5% report being F2P, while 28.7% have spent less than $100, 18.3% spent between $100 - $499, 7.3% spent between $500 - $999, and 8.7% have spent over $1000. 46.6% last spent money on FE:H during the fourth year of the game (the last 3 months), while 6.6% last spent money during the third year of the game, 5.8% last spent during the second year of the game, and 5.1% last spent money during the first year of the game. ~ Summoning ~ “Which of the following banners have you used orbs on at least once?”
~ Summoning Mechanics ~ 33.7% spent orbs on the Hero Fest banner AFTER Intelligent Systems announced how they would be compensating players for the Hero Fest banner glitch, compared to 61.7% who did not. 30.5% say that knowing about the compensation for the Hero Fest banner glitch caused them to spend more orbs on the banner than they would have otherwise, compared to 41.5% who say it did not. 28.0% did not spend orbs on the Hero Fest banner. 34.3% feel positively or very positively about the quality of 4* focuses on regular banners, compared to 26.9% who feel negatively or very negatively. 69.7% feel positively or very positively about the quality of 4* focuses on seasonal banners, compared to 7.8% who feel negatively or very negatively. 53.8% report that the system guaranteeing a free 5* after 40 summons generally makes them summon more, while 5.4% report that it generally makes them summon less and 36.1% report no change in their summoning habits on New Heroes banners. “If all New Heroes Banners used the permanent 40-summons-for-a-guaranteed-5* system that CYL4 used, how would your orb-spending habits on New Heroes banners change?”
(1.8%) I would spend fewer orbs than I did before
(22.3%) I would spend the same amount of orbs I usually do
(10.3%) I would spend more orbs than I did before
(62.2%) My spending would depend more on the Heroes offered
~ Choose Your Legends IV ~ “Which CYL4 Brave Heroes have you summoned, whether from the guaranteed choice banner or the regular banner?”
(78.0%) Dimitri
(73.4%) Claude
(65.7%) Edelgard
(56.6%) Lysithea
Of the summoning milestones on the CYL4 banner:
(20.2%) did not reach any of these summoning milestones
(79.7%) reached 40 summons
(41.0%) reached 80 summons
(19.8%) reached 120 summons
(11.1%) reached 160 summons
45.7% say that the free 5* hero at 40, 80, 120 and 160 summons caused them to spend more on CYL4 than they would have otherwise, while 50.3% say it did not. 22.8% say that the potential use of a new Brave Hero in future F2P Guides for content such as Hero Battles influenced their Brave Heroes summons, compared to 74.0% who say it did not. “If you could only get ONE of the new Brave Heroes, which one would you choose?”
(36.8%) Dimitri
(28.9%) Edelgard
(22.9%) Claude
(7.8%) Lysithea
“Which Brave Hero do you believe is the overall strongest?”
(60.7%) Edelgard
(21.9%) Dimitri
(7.9%) Claude
(1.2%) Lysithea
“Which Brave Hero do you believe is the overall weakest?”
(61.2%) Lysithea
(13.7%) Claude
(7.0%) Dimitri
(1.7%) Edelgard
“Which Brave Hero do you believe has the best art?”
(32.9%) Claude
(27.3%) Dimitri
(20.1%) Lysithea
(13.3%) Edelgard
“Which set of Brave Heroes is your favorite overall?”
23.6% feel positively or very positively about the addition of Jorge as the CYL4 GHB hero, compared to 33.0% who feel negatively or very negatively. 86.3% believe CYL5 should add further protections against vote botting, compared to 4.4% who do not. 70.1% believe CYL5 should require Nintendo Account sign-in to vote, compared to 12.6% who do not. ~ Feh Pass and Resplendent Heroes ~ 41.2% feel negatively about the addition of the Feh Pass (down 15.8% from the last survey), compared to 11.6% who feel positively (up 1.5% from the last survey). 46.1% are neutral (up 14.3% from the last survey). 40.2% have purchased the Feh Pass, compared to 59.8% who have not. This is a 9.5% increase compared to the last survey, following a 6.7% increase before that. Of those who have subscribed to Feh Pass, 17.4% have purchased Resplendent Heroes separately (up 12.9% from the last survey), compared to 82.6% who have not. “Which Resplendent Hero has your favorite art?”
(13.4%) Cordelia
(12.8%) Eliwood
(8.7%) Eirika
(8.4%) Olwen
(7.5%) Sophia
(7.3%) Minerva
(6.0%) Azura
(5.7%) Lyn
(5.2%) Ike
(4.1%) Sanaki
(4.0%) Roy
(3.7%) M!Robin
(2.3%) Hector
(1.6%) Linde
(1.3%) Alm
“Which Resplendent outfit theme is your favorite?”
(16.3%) Muspell
(15.0%) Askr
(14.8%) Nifl
(11.5%) Embla
(11.5%) Hel
(10.3%) Ljosalfheimr
~ Miscellaneous ~ 15.8% feel positively about the introduction of Harmonized Heroes, compared to 31.3% who feel negatively. 29.5% have a Harmonized Hero, compared to 70.1% who do not. 14.6% feel positively or very positively about the Resonant Battles game mode, compared to 51.5% who feel negatively or very negatively. 4.6% say that the Resonant Battles game mode influenced them to pull for Harmonized Heroes, compared to 94.5% who say it has not. 34.8% believe the new Arena maps are better than the maps they replaced, while 7.4% believe they are worse, and 36.7% believe they are about the same. “How often do you use Auto Dispatch in Aether Raids?”
(34.3%) All of them, always
(0.2%) All of them, in Light Season
(3.6%) All of them, in Astra season
(24.3%) Only sometimes
(37.6%) I never use it
“IV Mango” is the preferred term for Trait Fruit according to 32.2% of respondents, followed by “IVcado” at 28.9%, “Fruit” at 7.6%, and “Dragonfruit” at 6.6%. The remaining 24.7% prefer to just call them Trait Fruit. 39.3% say they will use their first Trait Fruits on a Heroic Grails unit, while 32.9% say they will use them on a Summonable unit, and 1.3% say they will use them on an Askr unit. 58.7% prefer Stat Boosts for Legendary Heroes, compared to 26.3% who prefer Pair-Up. 56.5% generally prefer Regular Duo Heroes, compared to 8.8% who prefer Harmonized Duo Heroes. 1.8% say that the update that raised the minimum hardware/software required to play the game affected their ability to play FE:H, compared to 95.8% who say it did not. ~ Recurring Miscellaneous ~ “Which game do you want a New Heroes banner from the most?”
(26.0%) Three Houses (-1.9%)
(9.7%) Radiant Dawn (+0.5%)
(7.7%) Sacred Stones (+0.2%)
(7.5%) Awakening (-3.1%)
(6.4%) Genealogy of the Holy War (-1.3%)
(6.1%) Path of Radiance (-0.9%)
(6.0%) Gaiden / Shadows of Valentia (+2.7%)
(5.9%) TMS #FE (+1.9%)
(5.4%) Blazing Blade (+1.3%)
(5.0%) Fates (+1.0%)
(4.2%) Thracia 776 (+0.8%)
(2.4%) Binding Blade (+0.6%)
(0.8%) Shadow Dragon and the Blade of Light / Shadow Dragon (-1.0%)
(0.8%) Mystery of the Emblem / New Mystery of the Emblem (-1.1%)
“How much do you care about your rank in the following modes?”
(2.90/5.00 average) Arena
(2.82/5.00 average) Aether Raids
(2.48/5.00 average) PvE game modes with player ranking boards
(1.82/5.00 average) Arena Assault
“How have recent changes to FE:H changed your opinion on the game as a whole?”
(39.3%) My opinion was positive and has stayed positive
(5.7%) My opinion used to be negative, but has turned positive
(40.1%) Neutral
(9.9%) My opinion used to be positive, but has turned negative
(5.1%) My opinion was negative and has stayed negative
~ Intelligent Systems Approval Ratings ~ The approval ratings are calculated by the proportion of Approve responses compared to the number of both Approve and Disapprove responses. Percent who approve of the way Intelligent Systems is handling:
74.6% - The addition of new heroes / characters to the game (+11.9)
69.4% - The gacha mechanics and summoning banners (+5.5)
59.2% - The story/plot (+9.4)
85.2% - Unranked PvE game modes (Hero Battles, Forging Bonds, Tactics Drills, Lost Lore, Hall of Forms) (-1.2)
50.7% - Ranked PvE game modes (Voting Gauntlets, Tempest Trials, Grand Conquest, Allegiance Battles, Rokkr Sieges, Mjolnir's Strike) (-2.6)
34.6% - Arena (-6.2)
48.0% - Arena Assault (+6.7)
45.8% - Aether Raids (+12.7)
40.5% believe Intelligent Systems cares about its Free to Play userbase (up 10.1% from the last survey), while 34.7% do not. This continues the upward trend from the previous survey, bringing us to 8.8% down from where we were before the February drop). 42.9% approve of the way Intelligent Systems is handling Fire Emblem: Heroes as a whole (up 14.8% from the last survey), while 16.9% disapprove. This continues the upward trend from the previous survey, bringing us to only 2.5% down from where we were before the February drop).
A NOTE ABOUT METHODOLOGY: The overall approval ratings question above has traditionally been the exact percent of Approve responses, as a proportion with both Neutral and Disapprove responses. Note that this is different than the way approval is calculated for individual modes (the proportion of Approve responses compared to the number of both Approve and Disapprove responses), where Neutral responses are excluded. The difference in calculation has continued this way in order to maintain comparability with previous survey results. For comparisons sake, the overall approval rating trend going by raw Approval percentage over the last 4 surveys is: 50.6% (Dec) -> 22.9% (Feb) -> 28.1% (Apr) -> 42.9% (Sept) Whereas the overall approval rating trend going by proportion of Approve/Disapprove with the Neutrals excluded over the last 4 surveys is: 82.2% (Dec) -> 41.0% (Feb) -> 51.3% (Apr) -> 71.7% (Sept).
~ Bonus Questions ~ “Who is your Favorite Hero added since the last survey?”
Dimitri (Brave) is the winner, followed by Edelgard (Brave), then Claude (Brave).
“What would be the best Harmonized Hero (a pair of two heroes from different games) and why?”: Rather than selecting a subset of responses this time, the link below is to a google sheet of almost all unique responses. I cleaned it up a little bit to remove “idk” type answers, duplicates, and partial string duplicates, so don’t worry if you don’t see your exact response in it. [Full Responses]. ~ Feedback ~ As always, I received lots of great feedback, both in your survey responses and in the thread itself. A heartfelt thank you to all participants for your encouragements and criticisms - these surveys wouldn’t be where they are without your feedback. But it’s not all serious; feedback messages also included:
“There once was a CYL4 banner / That hit my orbs hard like a hammer / The very next day / FloomMom Duo came our way / Now I'm stuck bartering with a loan planner”
“bonk, go to survey jail”
“Am I also allowed to put in "Norne and Azura" for a Harmonized Hero pair? No reason.”
“Brace yourself. Winter (armours) are coming!” “Brave Hector's refine has made me so very happy with it's inclusion. Go shove your bow up your butt Legendary Chrom.”
“Give me villager alts or give me death”
“I expect the next survey to come with +12 to attack, null follow up, and special cooldown reduction.”
“The true best Harmonized Hero would be Azura and Roy since it would make me uninstall the game and never want to play a gacha ever again”
“My headcanon for the dream storyline is that the evil fairies have the Summoner off picking up pebbles that look like orbs. Fredrickson would be proud.”
“Where's the most wanted unit to add to the game question so I can shout my want for Seteth into the void?”
“I no longer dab, for Legendary Seliph has finally appeared.”
And greetings from Argentina, the Bahamas, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, the UK, Vietnam, the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, Toronto, and St. Louis, as well as from many fictional locations!
And some personal/meta comments:
“Any chance we end up seeing another Super Serious Survey in the not-so-distant future?” -> I could not believe it’s been over a year since the last one! We’ll have to do one soon!
“Feels like the end of an era, not having to count all my five stars” -> I know, right? I may have it return in a side survey for the most hardcore of respondents at some point, since some people are asking about it and it would be good to get data on it every once in a while.
“I was looking through your Nornes skills and saw you haven't given her live for bounty yet! It's the best skill for her, what are you doing!?” -> I am a fraud :( I have given her Live for Honor though :P
“What do you hope for in FEH?” -> Norne alt, Resplendent Jaffar, and Shamir
Multiple people mentioned that they had returned after a long break and were surprised to see Norne instead of Azura! Welcome back!
I also missed a bunch of other possible Trait Fruit nicknames, which I knew would inevitably happen. Sorry!
Note: Please don’t ask me to feature your feedback comment; it’s the only guaranteed way to not have your comment added! Finally, the suggestion to have separate options for serious vs non-serious feedback was a good idea, I’ll try that out on the next survey! ~ Closing Remarks ~ If you missed out on responding to this survey when it was available, consider subscribing to FEHSurveys. This subreddit serves as a place to organize FE:H-related surveys, make new releases more visible, and make it easier for users to see when surveys are active. Thanks again to everyone who participated! I hope you find the results interesting, and if there’s anything else you think can be discovered from the data, let me know and I’ll do my best to oblige!
College apps suck, good luck to anyone currently applying!
Hey all! I know this time of year is really tough for anyone applying to college. Stick in there! Demographics
Gender: Non-binary
Race/Ethnicity: Chinese
Residence: Midwestern US
Income Bracket: Low
Type of School: Public
Hooks (Recruited Athlete, URM, First-Gen, Geographic, Legacy, etc.): First-Gen, Geographic (from a low-population state with few Ivy applicants), idk if being trans is a hook
Intended Major(s): Classics Academics
GPA (UW/W): 3.9/4.2
Rank (or percentile): 6/250
# of Honors/AP/IB/Dual Enrollment/etc.: 12 APs and 2 Dual Enrollment art/design classes at a local community college
Senior Year Course Load: AP Stats, AP Econ, AP Environmental Science, AP Literature, Latin 4, Orchestra
Standardized Testing
SAT I: 1590 (790RW, 800M)
ACT: 35 (35E, 35M, 36R, 33S)
SAT II: Math 2 (800), Literature (720)
AP/IB: Human Geography (5), European History (4), Chemistry (3), United States History (4), US Gov/Politics (4), Physics 1 (4), English Lang and Comp (5), Calc AB (5), Statistics (4), Microeconomics (4), Environmental Science (5), English Lit and Comp (5)
Other (ex. IELTS, TOEFL, etc.): N/A
Extracurriculars/Activities
Local chapter of Junior Classical League (4 years), President
Orchestra (4 years), Concertmaster
Debate (4 years), Team Captain, won state in my senior year
Teaching Assistant at Chinese camp (4 years)
Science Olympiad (4 years), Team Captain
Pit Orchestra (3 years)
Congressional Debate (2 years)
Quiz Bowl (4 years)
Environmental Club (3 years)
Private Violin Tutor (1 year)
Awards/Honors
Questbridge National College Match Scholarship Finalist
National Merit Scholar
National Speech and Debate Association Superior Distinction
Letters of Recommendation I had really good relationships with both of my recommenders. One was my Latin teacher who I had been taking classes from all 4 years, and was the mentor to JCL, an activity that I was really involved in. The other was my APUSH teacher who coached Quiz Bowl, which I was involved in for all four years of high school. I also chatted with both teachers pretty regularly about non-class stuff. In the end, both of their recommendations were... just fine. Not bad by any means, but nothing about them stands out, they were just generic. (I was able to see them bc I had to request pdf versions from the teachers for a scholarship later.) Interviews My Yale interview was amazing, it was a phone interview with an AO that wasn't in charge of my area. It was meant to be ~30 minutes but we talked for over an hour, and it was a really fun conversation! Since I applied REA, it was my first college interview experience and I was so relieved that it felt like a natural conversation. We talked about history and classics (my intended major at the time) and random small historical things that I was passionate about. My other interviews... not so great. I had interviews for Harvard and Princeton, and they were both just with unenthused alumni that lived in my area. The interviewers just asked me questions about test scores and extracurriculars that would've already been covered by my application. Harvard interviewer did let me know that the interview is one of the least-considered parts of your application. Essays My personal statement was a mediocre child-of-immigrants essay. There is truly so little to say about it. I think my supplementals and short answers were much better written, and I really liked my optional essay for Harvard, which was about mythology and gender, how I related old myths to problems in my personal life. Decisions (indicate ED/EA/REA/SCEA/RD) Acceptances:
Yale (REA) -- attending
University of Minnesota - Twin Cities (RD but it was rolling so I knew around the same time as EA)
Harvard (RD)
Princeton (RD)
Stanford (RD)
Columbia (RD)
Waitlists/Rejections: N/A *I applied to only top schools in RD bc I had already gotten into Yale REA and got good fin aid from them, so I didn't end up applying to any more targets or safeties. Additional Information: Feel free to comment or pm me with any questions! I remember how stressful and soul-sucking this process is and would love to be of help! Edit: I'm already a year into college (not a prefrosh) so feel free to ask me questions about Yale student life too! I'm pretty involved in activist and queer circles :)
I know that Bioware has flat out dropped the andromeda plot for now, but I'm replaying the entire series and would like to voice some opinions. First off, I wanna say that if bioware Montreal had been given the time and resources to complete the game and its story, andromeda would have worked. EA has a history of rushing devs to pump out half finished trash coughdeadspace3cough, and to punish a new team for something they brought upon themselves is so stupid. Now, the biggest gripe about andromeda for me was the bland and lackluster plot. Like come on, another race hell bent on assimilation? If they made the scourge sentient it would make a hell of a lot better villain than the archon. On the topic of the archon, why the hell did they not even try to give him a backstory? We know nothing about him other than that he wanted the remnant to assimilate the entire cluster. So if there were to be a sequel, it would either need to rework the Kett(a tall task), or ditch them and find a better villain. Next, I feel that they really messed up by taking away player choice in conversations. Sure, they give you more options, but they all have the exact same effect. The paragon/renegade system may have been outdated, but it worked really well. If a sequel does happen, they could still do away with the binary choices of the OT, but have the dialogue choices carry actual weight in the story. The open worlds mechanic was really cool, so they should keep that, but maybe do something like the fallout 4 basebuilding mechanic, instead of those bland cookie cutter ass colonies. Thats all I can think of for now, but if anyone's got more ideas I'd like to hear them.
Wizards of the Coast implementing their 5th Edition D&D combat system • I feel like doing this will give a refreshing feel to the series while not departing too much from a system that is very much so entangled with the game. I also believe that oversight from WotC has a chance of keeping EA in line. With this door open, writers from some of the most praised modules like Curse of Strahd could support the implementation of unfinished content. Both games in one application • One of the main ideas of KotOR II was that certain small "critical moments" can change situations drastically, but due to the only input from the previous game being two binary choices, any chance at observing nuance over a longer period is thrown out of the window. With both games in one application, the choices could be intertwined much more deeply than before. Renewed dungeons, mini games, and puzzles • Many of the puzzles in the game are just questions on an in game computer screen or a series of dialogue options, and Dungeons themselves are mostly combat. With an increase in technology, this is probably the easiest place to change without making a different game.
[Support] ArmoryCrate Privacy Concerns - Unexplained Disk access.
Note - if there is a way to control system performance (CPU Freq,etc) without using AC that'd be grand. Model is Tuf Gaming FX505DT. AC is up to date, freshly reinstalled to make sure this was a pure version of the software. I have been troubleshooting some performance issues on m y NAS. In chrome, I had (when they system was installed) been storing all my downloads on a mapped drive to the nas. I changed that a while ago. Today I used Wireshark to resume troubleshooting and noticed constant traffic to the NAS, iterating through files in that directory. Looking in Procmon64, i notice that the action is coming from ArmoryCrate. Looking through the app, i unchecked the "Auto Scan games" option, and I don't see others. I can't think of any good reason why this app should be digging through my downloads folder - constantly. Until now, i've been reasonably happy with this laptop. After my last two Asus models I was very, very hesitant to buy a new one - both previous ones had serious flaws (mainly in how the power input jack was extremely flimsy).. But if Armory Crate is just spyware no matter how benign, That'll be the end of me ever trusting ASUS again. App version is 3.0.4.0 I told it to save a log, but its in binary, unsure what it's supposed to be read in. Pulling it up in a hex editor gave no clues, and a quick google search didn't help. I've removed all the files from that directory now. Edit: the executable reading the files is: C:\Program Files\ASUS\ARMOURY CRATE Service\ArmouryCrate.UserSessionHelper.exe and it has some creepy dlls like: AsEncryptHelper.dll Asustek computer inc 3.0.1.0 5/9/20 vir18 10:43:01 AM Program stack includes 14 AC_FDSPlugin.dll QueryLibrary + 0x6e83 0x7ffecd64d0e3 C:\Program Files\ASUS\ARMOURY CRATE Service\AC_FDSPlugin\AC_FDSPlugin.dll There's also httputility.dll and a virutaldriveplugin.dll.. what is this app doing? The one hit i get for that file is something in russian from a EA gaming support group. Again, this is a fresh install of armorycrate.. ran the usual malware scans as well.
I think I'm at the point where playing the sims is more frustrating than enjoyable. I pre-ordered the sims 4 in 2014 and barely played it for 4 years because it sucked so hard upon release. I got back into it last year after buying the city living and get famous packs. I got a lot out of them but at the same time I got get to work and only use it for build mode. A few months ago I decided to try CC (I was always scared of crashing my game even though I have a chonker of a gaming computer, idk I guess I thought it was sketchy) and really found a zest for building again but things like stairs and roofs make it endlessly annoying. For the most part I can't download from the gallery, I only have 3 expansion packs and laundry day so most of the houses I download end up looking like shit and there's nothing I can really add to fix it. It's almost more work to fix up a download then to build a house from scratch. (Why do they give us the option to deselect packs when we search but it still gives me everything under the searched tag?) CAS gives me dysphoria. I think we were all excited when they announced that clothes work for all genders now but the strict binary they inforce kills me. No facial hair for "female" bodies, no breasts for "male' bodies, there's no actual option for androgyny. I thought downloaded CC would help with this but I didn't realize most CC only works on one body type. I'm not blaming the CC creators for this. I'm not going to even go into gameplay because there's nothing to do. I won't spend $500+ dollars for gameplay that's only playable once, if that. I also find it insulting that EA says they won't give us content because we don't deserve it. I will not smile while being forced to eat ashes, I will not play with elders until they give me a reason to play with them. I think a lot of the creator content in sims 4 is incredible but I can barely get through a session anymore. Idk if it's cause SI has made me more negative and really highlighting all the things that have been frustrating me since forever or if I'm just finally getting fed up but I'm close to never playing again.
A comparison of 7 visual story apps: Choices, Arcana, Lovestruck, Chapters, Romance Club, Journeys, and Storyscape!
This is an update to my previous post comparing visual story apps, but comparing three more apps! Romance Club, Journeys, and of course Storyscape. These seven games are:
Since all of these apps have different names for the same things, I tried to standardize the terminology...
Series: A unique story setting and characters.
Book: A part of the story set in the series (also known as "routes" for Arcana and Lovestruck).
Chapter: A part of a book that needs a "pass" to play.
Passes: The in-game currency that allows you to play a new chapter.
Gems: The in-game currency that allows you to make "premium" choices in chapters.
CG: An in-game image featuring characters from the game.
Choices: Stories You Play
The Arcana: A Mystic Romance
Lovestruck: Choose Your Romance
Chapters: Interactive Stories
Romance Club: Stories I Play
Journeys: Interactive Series
Storyscape
Release Date (App Store)
8/17/2016
10/22/2016
3/1/2017
10/27/2017
3/7/2018
8/22/2019
10/22/2019
App Store Age Rating
12+
12+
17+
17+
12+
17+
17+
Passes are Called
Keys
Keys
Tickets
Tickets
Tea
Tickets
Tickets
Maximum Number of Passes
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
Pass Regeneration Rate
3 hours
4 hours
2.5 hours
2 hours
2 hours
2 hours
2.5 hours
Gems are Called
Diamonds
Coins
Hearts
Diamonds
Diamonds
Diamonds
Diamonds
MC Visual Customization?
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
MC Gender
Majority female (several stories have male options)
Male/Female/Non-binary
Female-only
Almost all female (1 male-only story)
Female-only
Female-only
Almost all female
LI Gender
Majority male (all but 1 story have at least 1 female LI)
3 Male, 2 female, 1 non-binary
Male/Female (new releases are 50/50, 2 non-binary)
Almost all male (2 female LI stories)
Male/Female
Male/Female
Male/Female
Character Animations?
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Watch Ads to Earn Gems?
Yes
Yes (beta)
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Play Games to Earn Gems?
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
Check-in Daily to Earn Gems?
Yes
Yes
Yes* (daily puzzle piece)
Yes
Yes
No
No
Play Chapters to Earn Gems?
Yes
No
Yes* (Romantic Quests)
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Rate Chapters to Earn Gems?
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Number of Unique Series
35+
1 (6 books)
14+
100+
7
12+
4+
Series Types
Both continuing series and stand-alones
1 continuing series
Almost all continuing series (several stand-alones)
Almost all stand-alones (two continuing series)
Both continuing series and stand-alones
Both continuing series and stand-alones
Both continuing series and stand-alones
Average Chapters in Book
~15-18
22 (full)
12 (19 for earlier books)
~18-20
10
~15
~10-17
Average Choices per Book
~10-15
~7-15
~3-6
~7-15
~15-19
~4-7
~10-15
Can You Collect CGs?
No* (they exist, but you can't collect them in one place)
Yes
Yes
Yes (character cards)
No
No
No* (they exist, but you can't collect them in one place)
Do Choices Affect the Story?
Yes
Yes (upright/reversed endings)
No* (some older books have thrilling/passionate endings)
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Are Series in Same Universe?
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
Parent Company in:
Korea (US Subsidiary)
USA
Japan (US Subsidiary)
China (US Subsidiary)
Moldova
Argentina (?)
USA
MC Customization
Choices and Romance Club are really the main ones here that allows you to change your MC's look, since you can choose the MC's face, hair, etc. They have a lot of options.
Most Chapters, Journeys and Storyscape MC looks are just different skin tones or hairstyles.
There are no MC visuals in the Arcana at all, and none in some of the older Lovestruck books.
I think it's no secret that the core demographic here for visual story apps are women. All the apps allow you to play as a female MC in every book.
If you want to play as a male MC Choices is probably still the best option here despite all the gender-locking complaints people have. Choices still has the most stories with a male MC option.
Storyscape's latest book allows you to select a male MC, and some of their books also alternate between male and female characters (think TC&TF in Choices)
For non-binary players, the Arcana is currently the only game that lets your MC go by "they/them." But Storyscape's next book Ageless will have a non-binary MC option.
Choices, Storyscapes, Romance Club, Journeys, and Chapters all have premium choices using gems to get better looks for your MC.
Lovestruck has gem outfits for a couple of the older books like Speakeasy Tonight but they no longer do that for the new ones. Arcana has no MC visuals.
LI Choices
All the games have male LIs (obv).
For WLW players, Choices, Storyscape and Lovestruck are obvious winners here, but many Choices books only have a single female LI while all the new Lovestruck books have multiple female LIs with different personalities. Also since the MCs in Lovestruck are always bi females, the female LIs in the game have much more WLW-specific dialogue than Choices.
Romance Club also has female LIs but their stories are not as comprehensive as the male LIs.
For MLM players, Choices is kinda the only game in town here if you want visuals, I think. You can play as male in the Arcana with the three male LIs but there's no visual customization, just pronouns. Chapters has a single MLM story that was released a while ago and they have not made any new ones since. Not sure if Storyscape's new Edge of Extinction, which has a male MC option allows you to go for a male LI yet.
Only two games have non-binary love interests: Lovestruck has two (Cyprin and JD) and Arcana has one (Asra, goes by he/him).
Earning Passes/Gems
I still think the Arcana is probably the easiest one to earn in-game gems for, since there are so many ways to earn them. Heart Hunter, watch ads (if you have the beta feature), sell trinkets from the spin, win gems from the free spin. Chapters is pretty easy too since you can watch a ton of ads for gems and they don't really have that many limitations of how many you can watch.
The hardest one to earn in-game gems for is probably Lovestruck. Their choices cost more (~20+) and you can only get gems by playing Romantic Quests, which give max five gems in an ten-hour period. The daily puzzle piece technically gives you gems too but it's so slow it might as well not count.
Storyscape is decent primarily because it doesn't have that many gem choices per chapter, plus you can earn gems from rating chapters, which is nice.
Choices is decent at giving you free gems but it's also the most gem-heavy by far, since there are multiple gem choices per chapter and there's a lot of "collect them all" stuff in books.
Romance Club is pretty generous if you regularly check-in. Reading the first chapter of a new book gives you ten gems.
Chapters regularly lets you read a random book without using up any passes, for 24 hours.
Arcana recently also has had multiple weekends where no passes were needed to read books at all. You can also buy chapters outright and then you don't need to use passes or gems to play that chapter again and again!
Both Arcana and Lovestruck actually allow you to earn passes through other means than waiting for the timer.
Shoutout to Romance Club for having the most innovative name for passes - "Cups of Tea"!
Gameplay
Two games here have character animations: Journeys and Storyscape. The rest of the games do not have characters animate but instead rely on sprites.
Storyscape's 3D animations are insane for a mobile game - while yes, they can be creepy sometimes (uncanny valley), the models are very expressive and they actually add to the story in many ways. Nothing else here compares to it.
Journeys's animations are more like Episode's and are simpler and 2D, and half the time you're just waiting for the animation to finish so you can go through the book faster.
Both Choices and Lovestruck have animations for other parts of the story (like magical stuff), though Choices's are more complex.
Arcana and Storyscape have the least typos (almost none, I feel), Choices and Lovestruck have a few occasionally, and Romance Club, Chapters, and Journeys's books often have a bunch. I might be a bit unfair to the last three since their developers are not from the US and are overseas.
Chapters' regular gem choices are the worst because out of all of these games it's the one that most often makes you spend gems just to say something that isn't stupid or do something mind-numblingly idiotic, and it barely affects anything.
The age rating really affects the romantic content of the books.
Chapters is the most explicit (sometimes really badly so) in scenes. There are also some problematic books but that's a different story...
Storyscape is pretty explicit too; it's definitely targeting an adult audience.
Choices tends to rely on implied actions. (other than Bloodbound as does Arcana and Romance Club. No surprise that they have the lowest age rating in the App Store.
Ironically despite the name of these games, they vary greatly about how much your own choices impact the story.
Storyscape's choices are pretty consistently going to affect what happens later in the game. Just an example, Titanic ends really differently and has several different endings depending on what you did/ did not do.
I know a lot of people complain that choices in Choices often don't change the story, but they still do in some (Endless Summer!).
Arcana choices affect whether you get the upright/reversed endings for a LI, which are very different story endings!
Romance Club's also put you on different paths that change the story line a bit.
On the other hand, choices in Lovestruck basically never affect the main story line. Some of the older books have passionate/thrilling endings (like Astoria) that get unlocked with your choices, but the new ones never have these endings. Same with Chapters.
None of these apps offer Telltale or Life is Strange-level choice effects though.
Journeys offers translations of their stories into several European languages - German, Spanish, Portugues, Italian.
Interface
Most of the games have something nice about their interface that I wish could make it into the other apps.
Lovestruck allows you to fast forward, rewind, and see a log of speech in the chapter. No more tapping mindlessly and missing something important! That's probably why they don't give you gems for finishing chapters though...
I really like the tarot check-in in Arcana. It's very on-theme and fun.
Both Arcana and Lovestruck allow you to collect CGs from LI interactions and you can view them in a gallery later. Both of these games have a mixture of free and premium CGs that you have to use gems to get, but there are many more free ones on Lovestruck and I'd say it's an integral part of the game.
Choices and Storyscape have what could be considered "CGs" but there's nowhere to view them outside of the chapter they appear. If you don't screenshot the moment you'll have to replay the chapter again to see it.
Chapters has a "Card Cabinet" where you collect character cards, etc. It's kinda like Steam cards that you earn while playing, though some of the cards require premium choices to be made to unlock. They also have an easy way to view achievements.
Journeys is the only one that's in landscape, and I actually like that because it feels like I'm watching a movie. They also tell you how much of the chapter you have left when you pause.
Lovestruck and Chapters both have the ability to write and see in-game reviews of books. But the comments on Chapters are rarely about the book and are just people sharing their friend codes.
Storyscape tells you who wrote and directed the chapter after you finish, I like that too.
History & Background
All the apps have very different histories about how they came about.
Lovestruck is technically the oldest here, since some of their stories were first released as stand-alone apps that later got merged into one app in 2017. Speakeasy Tonight was released all the way back in 2013, Astoria in 2015, etc. The company Voltage is based in Japan with an American subsidiary.
Choices released in August 2016 but the PB team had published two other games (High School Story and Hollywood U) before it with a similar (short) episodic format, and also Surviving High School with EA even before that. They are now a subsidiary of Nexon, a Korean company.
Arcana got its beginning through Kickstarter three years ago - unfortunately apparently some people still haven't gotten their rewards... Nix Hydra is still an independent game studio as far as I can tell.
Chapters came out a year or so after Choices and they clearly in the beginning copied a lot of how that app works, right down to the wording of certain choices. The company is ChineseAll USA Corp, based in China, and the US subsidiary is based out of Sunnyvale. That being said, their app now has more unique features and mechanics to keep people playing.
Romance Club seems to have a big community of readers especially in Eastern Europe, and they're based out of Moldova.
Journeys is only a few months old but they seem to be very popular in Latin America.
Storyscape is the newest game here but they were hotly anticipated by a lot of people, and for good reason IMO. Their studio was a game arm of 20th Century Fox so I guess technically they're owned by Disney now?
Demographics
Here's a chart by gendesexual orientation for which game gives you the most options / fits a particular demographic best in my opinion:
Here's how I would group the games according to similarity.
The "new otome games": Lovestruck and The Arcana; they're the most similar to each other, with CGs as rewards, and "routes" with specific LIs. Obviously they differ from the classic otome formula in that they have a much greater variety of LIs than just guys!
The "immersive fiction games": Choices, Romance Club both fit here. A library of their own books and customization of main characters. These two games are extremely similar (I suspect by intent...).
The "paperback romance games": Chapters and Journeys. Reading these are kinda like reading those cheap paperback novels you buy at the airport, ya know? It's not highbrow fiction, but it scratches a certain itch. These two are also the most similar to Episode in a way.
The "TV-show-as-book": Storyscape kinda exists as itself. For a while I wondered why they call their books "shows" but it kinda makes sense now because of the production quality. Of course, two of their books are actually from film/TV, but it makes sense because of their origins at Fox.
As a last word, it's kinda cool that for Choices, Storyscape, and Romance Club their developers have all been on and done stuff with their Reddit communities. Romance Club even has a link to the subreddit in the app! The other apps are slacking on this. Agree, disagree? Tell me!
A comparison of four visual story apps: Choices, Arcana, Lovestruck and Chapters
I decided to write up a chart comparing four of the visual story games I've played and how they compare in some respects. Not going to try and judge the writing quality of the games, while Chapters is obviously the least-quality on this metric I'll leave it to everyone to decide quality among the other three. I'm not trying to rank any one as better than the other! I think it should be pretty evident from my comparison that all of them have strengths and weaknesses. There are a couple more games coming out (Storyscape is probably the most anticipated one) but they're still changing things so I didn't include them. I also didn't include Episode because I honestly have no clue which stories are featured / written by their team and I know most people don't play the "official" stories anyway, so it's kinda pointless to compare. These four games are:
Choices: Stories You Play by Pixelberry Studios (Choices)
The Arcana: A Mystic Romance by Nix Hydra (TheArcana)
Lovestruck: Choose Your Romance by Voltage (Lovestruck)
Chapters: Interactive Stories by Crazy Maple Studio (Chapters)
Since all of these apps have different names for the same things, I tried to standardize the terminology...
Series: A unique story setting and characters.
Book: A part of the story set in the series (also known as "routes" for Arcana and Lovestruck).
Chapter: A part of a book that needs a "pass" to play.
Passes: The in-game currency that allows you to play a new chapter.
Gems: The in-game currency that allows you to make "premium" choices in chapters.
CG: An in-game image featuring characters from the game.
Choices: Stories You Play
The Arcana: A Mystic Romance
Lovestruck: Choose Your Romance
Chapters: Interactive Stories
Release Date (App Store)
8/17/2016
10/22/2016
3/1/2017
10/27/2017
App Store Age Rating
12+
12+
17+
17+
Passes are Called
Keys
Keys
Tickets
Tickets
Maximum Number of Passes
2
3
2
2
Pass Regeneration Rate
3 hours
4 hours
2.5 hours
2 hours
Gems are Called
Diamonds
Coins
Hearts
Diamonds
MC Visual Customization?
Yes
No
No
Yes
MC Gender
Majority female (several stories have male options)
Male/Female/Non-binary
Female-only
Almost all female (1 male-only story)
LI Gender
Majority male (all but 1 story have at least 1 female LI)
3 Male, 2 female, 1 non-binary
Male/Female (new releases are 50/50, 2 non-binary)
Almost all male (2 female LI stories)
Watch Ads to Earn Gems?
Yes
Yes (beta)
No
Yes
Play Games to Earn Gems?
No
Yes
No
No
Check-in Daily to Earn Gems?
Yes
Yes
Yes* (daily puzzle piece)
Yes
Play Chapters to Earn Gems?
Yes
No
Yes* (Romantic Quests)
No
Number of Unique Series
35+
1 (6 books)
14
100+
Series Types
Both continuing series and stand-alones
1 continuing series
Almost all continuing series (several stand-alones)
Almost all stand-alones (two continuing series)
Average Chapters in Book
~15-18
22 (full)
12 (19 for earlier books)
~18-20
Average Choices per Book
~10-15
~7-15
~3-6
~7-15
Can You Collect CGs?
No* (they exist, but you can't collect them in one place)
Yes
Yes
No
Do Choices Affect the Story?
Yes
Yes (upright/reversed endings)
No* (some older books have thrilling/passionate endings)
No
Are Series in Same Universe?
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
MC/LI Choices
Choices is really the main one here that allows you to change your MC's look. Most Chapters looks are just different skin tones or hairstyles, while the MCs in Lovestruck are set in appearance and have their own backstory. There are no MC visuals in the Arcana at all, and none in some of the older Lovestruck books.
For WLW players, both Choices and Lovestruck are obvious winners here, but many Choices books only have a single female LI while all the new Lovestruck books have multiple female LIs with different personalities. Also since the MCs in Lovestruck are always bi females, the female LIs in the game have much more WLW-specific dialogue than Choices.
The older Lovestruck books only have one female LI each but the new ones have an equal amount of male and female LIs.
There are two Chapters WLW books, and both of them came out when the app had just launched, and there haven't been any new ones since then.
For MLM players, Choices is kinda the only game in town here if you want visuals, I think. You can play as male in the Arcana with the three male LIs but there's no visual customization, just pronouns. Chapters has a single MLM story that was released a while ago and they have not made any new ones since.
For non-binary players, the Arcana is the only game that lets your MC go by "they/them."
Only two games have non-binary love interests: Lovestruck has two (Cyprin and JD) and Arcana has one (Asra, goes by he/him).
Earning Passes/Gems
I think the Arcana is probably the easiest one to earn in-game gems for, since there are so many ways to earn them. Heart Hunter, watch ads (if you have the beta feature), sell trinkets from the spin, win gems from the spin. Chapters is pretty easy too since you can watch a ton of ads for gems.
The hardest one to earn in-game gems for is probably Lovestruck. Their choices cost more (~20+) and you can only get gems by playing Romantic Quests, which give max five gems in an ten-hour period. The daily puzzle piece technically gives you gems too but it's so slow it might as well not count.
You can also buy a chapter outright in Arcana, which means you unlock all of its premium choices and you don't have to use passes to play that chapter. Theoretically if you have enough coins you can buy an entire book outright and replay it over and over again without ever using passes or gems for it ever again. It's a great option that I wish more of the other apps would adopt.
Chapters regularly lets you read a random book without using up any passes, for 24 hours. Arcana recently also had a weekend where no passes were needed to read books at all. Not sure if they're going to do it again in the future though.
Both Arcana and Lovestruck actually allow you to earn passes through other means than waiting for the timer.
Gameplay
I know a lot of people complain that choices in Choices often don't change the story, but they still do in some (Endless Summer!). Arcana choices affect whether you get the upright/reversed endings for a LI, which are very different story endings!
On the other hand, choices in Lovestruck basically never affect the main story line. Some of the older books have passionate/thrilling endings (like Astoria) that get unlocked with your choices, but the new ones never have these endings. Same with Chapters.
None of these apps offer Telltale or Life is Strange-level choice effects where even minor answers can change what happens later in the game. It's probably too much to ask...
Both Arcana and Lovestruck allow you to collect CGs from LI interactions and you can view them in a gallery later. Choices has what could be considered "CGs" but there's nowhere to view them. If you don't screenshot the moment you'll have to replay the chapter again to see it. Both of these games have a mixture of free and premium CGs that you have to use gems to get, but there are many more free ones on Lovestruck.
Chapters has a "Card Cabinet" where you collect character cards, etc. It's kinda like Steam cards that you earn while playing, though some of the cards require premium choices to be made to unlock.
Arcana also allows you to collect postcards featuring characters through their Heart Hunter mini-game, but not through the main story line.
The age rating really affects the romantic content of the books. Chapters is the most explicit (sometimes really badly so) in scenes, Lovestruck can be pretty direct about things and themes, while the other two tend to rely on implied actions. (other than Bloodbound in Choices lol)
Arcana has the least typos (almost none, I feel), Choices and Lovestruck have a few occasionally, and Chapters books often have a bunch.
Choices and Chapters both have premium choices using gems to get better looks for your MC; Lovestruck has them for a couple of the older books but they no longer do that for the new ones. Arcana has no MC visuals.
Chapters' regular gem choices are the worst because out of all of these games it's the one that most often makes you spend gems just to say something that isn't stupid, and it barely affects anything.
Lovestruck and Chapters both have the ability to write and see in-game reviews of books.
Stories & Genres
Arcana and Lovestruck are best at continuing their existing series. If you start a route, chances are you can play that route for a while with the same story and LI. The big exception is Villainous Nights for Lovestruck which ended abruptly (I think because the writer left) but they recently started Juliette's route so who knows.
Choices is also pretty good about sequels as a whole though they don't go past three books per series anymore. It also seems obvious to me that they're making more stand-alones than in the past, probably because of financial cutbacks.
Chapters is almost completely stand-alones: Lux and Vampire Girl are their only series, I think.
All except Chapters also have some sort of broader fictional universe that all their stories tie into. Arcana is the most obvious example since all the stories take place in literally the same city and the characters show up in each others' books. Lovestruck and Choices both have cross-over scenes (Villainous Nights MC and Andi staying in Aurora's room/Pride 2019, Kaitlyn showing up on AME, etc.).
Chapters adapts books from a bunch of different sources and authors, so they don't even try on this one.
In terms of genres I'm really going to only compare examples from three of them since Arcana is effectively one big story that's a mixture of fantasy and mystery:
Genre
Choices
Lovestruck
Chapters
Action
The Heist: Romance, Most Wanted
Gangsters in Love, Villainous Nights
Bad Boy Blues
Fantasy
The Crown & The Flame, The Elementalists
Love & Legends, Reigning Passions
Robin Hood
Historical
A Courtesan of Rome, Desire & Decorum
Speakeasy Tonight
50 Ways to Ruin a Rake
Horror
It Lives Series
N/A
N/A
Mystery
Veil of Secrets
Castaway
Dirty Little Secrets, Uninvited
Paranormal
Bloodbound, Nightbound
Havenfall is for Lovers
Lux, Love at Stake
Science Fiction
Across the Void
Starship Promise
Court of Nightfall, The Wandering Earth
It kinda seems to me that Choices is really the only game in town for horror, and probably historical too since Lovestruck's only historical series (Speakeasy Tonight) ended a long time ago and Chapters' aren't really that thorough. Science fiction does not seem to be popular on any platform sadly.
If you're just looking for (straight) romance, it's hard to beat Chapters since almost every book is a romance book and they have just so many stand-alone series.
History
All the apps have very different histories about how they came about.
Lovestruck is technically the oldest here, since some of their stories were first released as stand-alone apps that later got merged into one app in 2017. Speakeasy Tonight was released all the way back in 2013, Astoria in 2015, etc. The company Voltage is based in Japan with an American subsidiary.
Choices released in August 2016 but the PB team had published two other games (High School Story and Hollywood U) before it with a similar (short) episodic format, and also Surviving High School with EA even before that. They are now a subsidiary of Nexon, a Korean company.
Arcana got its beginning through Kickstarter three years ago - unfortunately apparently some people still haven't gotten their rewards... Nix Hydra is still an independent game studio as far as I can tell and the only one without a parent company based in Asia.
Chapters came out a year or so after Choices and they clearly in the beginning copied a lot of how that app works, right down to the wording of certain choices. The company is ChineseAll USA Corp, based in China, and the US subsidiary is based out of Sunnyvale. That being said, their app now has more unique features and mechanics to keep people playing.
Demographics
Here's a chart by gendesexual orientation for which game gives you the most options / fits a particular demographic best in my opinion:
Before I begin I wanna say sorry for the huge wall of text. Also, instead of making a TL;DR, I've simply made a list of things you should read/skim over to get the gist of it:
Introduction.
Basic codes.
Fade/opacity codes.
"Special" codes.
Codes that allow profanity.
Combining codes.
Final words.
nsFAQ.
Introduction:
Hello Blazing players, today I will talk about something that quite a few of you might already be a little familiar with, the name change trick. You might've played PvP and matched against someone with and underline in thier name, or thier name is written in italics. Well today I've done some (in my own opinion) extensive testing with the name changer and it's codes.
First off, let's talk about how you would get setup to do this.
Go into the game settings and press on "Change Name".
Type in a name you like with 5, 4, 3 or less characters, depending on the code you want to use (this is because of the 8 character limit in your name).
After typing your prefered name, select a place in your name where you would like the effect to start from.
Additionally, if you wanna change your message in a multiplyer room.
Select any mission you can play in multipler, and press on "Gather friends".
When you're in the pre-lobby, press on "Room settings" in the top left, and then press on the lowest text input field.
Type your message.
In this example I'll use the names "Obito", "Neji" and "Lee" for the 5, 4 and 3 letter names respectively. How this works is that you use what is called "BB code" codes to give effects to your name. I will split these tables outlining the codes into sections;
Basic codes (5 or less characters in name).
Fade/opacity codes (4 or less chacaters in name).
"Special" codes (3 or less characters in name).
Weird codes (Varies in lenght, but the shortest one is 1 character, so 5 or less character name).
Codes that allows profanity (Codes we already talked about, but how they can be used).
Combining codes (Varies in length, but the shotest only allows you to have 2 or less characters in your name).
Fun names you can use if you want to (the names obviously uses the codes I've mentioned here).
Full list of fade/opacity codes - because english isn't my first language I don't believe in my own ability to get information across.
Imgur albums with examples of all the mentioned codes.
Final words.
nsFAQ (edited in after posting).
1. Basic codes:
The first table is the basic codes, i.e the codes that are the most well known in the community, and consist of only 1 letter in the code. You will need 5 or less characters in your name.
Name
Code
Usage
Result
Bold
[b]
[b]Obito
Obito
Italics
[i]
[i]Obito
Obito
Underline
[u]
[u]Obito
See Imgur album
Strikethrough
[s]
[s]Obito
Obito
These are the codes/names you've most likely run into at some point playing the game since they are the most common and well known codes. On a sidenote, I wanna mention that when you're on your homwscreen, then the code will be visible in your name (this goes for all codes), but don't worry, because in PvP and such it will still look differentand without the code looking horrible in your name. Imgur album with examples: Album
2. Fade/opacity codes:
IMPORTANT EDIT at the bottom of the section! The second table is the fade codes, i.e the codes that make your name "fade", or as normal people would say, it makes your name's opacity lower than original (transparent). You need 4 or less characters in your name. Now, these codes are a little special. Have you ever been up against someone in PvP with an opaque name, and it turns out the have [69] in thier name? Well, the 69 code is just a tiny part in the section that is opacity codes. Let's get into the table first, and I'll then explain further afterwards. The table doesn't have a "Result" column since Reddit doesn't have a feature for text opacity.
Name
Code
Usage
Regular 1-9 opacity
[01-09]
[05]Neji
Regular 10-99 opacity
[10-99]
[55]Neji
Fancy a-f opacity
[ax-fx]
[af]Neji
These are the name opacity codes. The opacity codes work in such a way that the higher the number, the less opacity, meaning that a name with [90] will be less transparent compared to a name with [10]. A sidenote to the statement made above, is that the code [01-05] makes your name pretty much completely invisible, and [05]-[08] makes it almost unreadable. Don't think you can use this to cheat, people will be able to see your full name and will be able to report after a match is done in PvP. The two "regular" opacity codes are conected, it's just that you just put a [1] and it'll work, no, you have to put a zero (0) in front of single character numbers, which is the reason why I separeted them in the table above. The "fancy" opacity codes is a little special in that it's basically an alphabet, but with everything beyond "f" removed, but also because they are the ones that adds the least total ammount of transaprency to your name. Let me explain; we all know the alphabet, and we all know that "g" comes after "f", however not in this case., so basically just go up to "f" and then go to the next letter. So a little quick list would be that you start with the code [aa], and then the next one is [ab], then [ac] and so on, until you get [af], after that you move on to [ba], then [bb] and so on. This means that the last code here will be [ff]. I will add a full list at the bottom of the post in case you still don't understand. Imgur album with examples: Album EDIT: Due to the findings of user iramd24, I have done a little more testing, and can now confirm his statement: "Since the opacity code goes from 01 to ff Im pretty sure It is hexadecimal instead of numeric and alphabetic so you could probably use the codes [b8] or [4e] for example I can't test It right now but following that logic it should work" This means that they aren't split into numeric and alphabetic sections, but rather everything is linked. I can confirm that he is indeed right (Full code table at the bottom has also been updated): (Codes go from 0 to 9, and then it goes from A to F, meaning that one section is 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 0a, 0b, 0c, 0d, 0e and 0f, after that we start over, but add a 1 where the 0 was, so it would be 10, 11, 12... all the way up till 1a, 1b, 1c... which is repeated for each section, for the alphabetic codes you simply do the same; a0, a1, a2... all the up to f0, f1, f2...). Hopefully this is understandable, but look under the section "Hexadecimal (base 16)" on this website for reference.
3. "Special" codes:
The third table is the "special" codes, i.e the codes that can give your name a "to the power of 2" aesthetic. You will need 3 or less characters in your name.
Name
Code
Usage
Result
Subscript
[sub]
L[sub]ee
See Imgur album
Superscript
[sup]
L[sup]ee
Lee
Now, there's not too much to say about these, they're just pretty cool to have, and they also looks the nicest when having a 3 letter profanity word in my opnition. Imgur album with examples: Album
4. "Weird" codes:
The fourth table is the weird codes, i.e codes that's doesn't seem to do anything, but still works (or codes that just can't do anything due to the way the name changing and name displaying is set up). At the time of writing this I've only found one, which is a one character code, however I'll update the table if I find or are made aware of any more.
Name
Code
Usage
Result
??? (Seems to labeled as "code snippet")
[c]
[c]Obito
???
The first one I've found seems to labeled as a code snippet on this website, which then makes sense as to why it doesn't work. Imgur album with examples: Album
5. Codes that allows profanity:
The fifth section is the profanity allowence codes, i.e codes that allows players to have banned words in thier name. I'm gonna use something mild in this section. This section feels sort of unnecessary in my own opinion, but hey, it's kinda funny to have your name as "Ass", right? Well instead of having a table outlining how to do it exactly, I'll just tell you that you should just put the code in the middle of the banned word and then you can use it, along with a few examples. Let's use "Ass" as an example once again.
Name
Code
Usage
Result
The fancy ass
[i]
A[i]ss
Ass
Subscript Ass
[sub]
A[sub]ss
See Imgur album
Superscript Ass
[sup]
A[sup]ss
Ass
I still don't know why "yeet" is a banned word :/ Imgur album with examples: Album
6. Combining codes:
The sixth section is the combining of codes, i.e codes that you can combine to make a name look nice with 2 effects. Like with section 5 above, I'm not gonna outline everything since there is an endless amount of possibilities for you to combine codes and make a nice name. In this section I'll use "xD" as an example, because I'm cringe like that. And I'll just use "D" in the last example.
Name
Code
Uasge
Result
Bold + Italics
[b] + [i]
[b][i]xD
xD
[u]Underline[/u] + Italics
[u] + [i]
[u][i]xD
See Imgur album
Transparent + strikethrough
[s] + [69]
[s][69]D
D (image the text being transparent a bit too)
You can combine any 2 previously mentioned codes to make a nice looking name, altough the only real viable option is to use two of the single character codes, because then you can get a 2 character name. Imgur album with examples: Album
7. Fun names you can use:
Now what is a guide about names without a section of free to use names? Well it's still a guide, but it's lacking that last section, like a frozen pizza is missing that jazz. This is a list of names I made (only 2 at the time of writing this) that you can use freely if you want to.
Name
Code used
Usage
Result
Hidden Rain village rouge ninja headband
[s]
[s]
Try it yourself!
Triangle
[u]
[u]/\
Try it yourself!
Don't judge, I'm not the most well versed guy in what other people like and find "cool", so, yeah.
8. Full list of fade/opacity codes:
Please note that the table to supposed to be read from the left most column, all the way down, and then move one column to the right and repeat. EDIT: This table has been updated due to new information being found by user iramd24, to now include all the Hexadecimal values you can use (it was quicker to write that it looks, I promise). This table takes the values from this website, look under the section "Hexadecimal (base 16)" for reference.
Section 0 codes
Section 1 codes
Section 2 codes
Section 3 codes
Section 4 codes
Section 5 codes
Section 6 codes
Section 7 codes
[00]
[10]
[20]
[30]
[40]
[50]
[60]
[70]
[01]
[11]
[21]
[31]
[41]
[51]
[61]
[71]
[02]
[12]
[22]
[32]
[42]
[52]
[62]
[72]
[03]
[13]
[23]
[33]
[43]
[53]
[63]
[73]
[04]
[14]
[24]
[34]
[44]
[54]
[64]
[74]
[05]
[15]
[25]
[35]
[45]
[55]
[65]
[75]
[06]
[16]
[26]
[36]
[46]
[56]
[66]
[76]
[07]
[17]
[27]
[37]
[47]
[57]
[67]
[77]
[08]
[18]
[28]
[38]
[48]
[58]
[68]
[78]
[09]
[19]
[29]
[39]
[49]
[59]
[69]
[79]
[0a]
[1a]
[2a]
[3a]
[4a]
[5a]
[6a]
[7a]
[0b]
[1b]
[2b]
[3b]
[4b]
[5b]
[6b]
[7b]
[0c]
[1c]
[2c]
[3c]
[4c]
[5c]
[6c]
[7c]
[0d]
[1d]
[2d]
[3d]
[4d]
[5d]
[6d]
[7d]
[0e]
[1e]
[2e]
[3e]
[4e]
[5e]
[6e]
[7e]
[0f]
[1f]
[2f]
[3f]
[4f]
[5f]
[6f]
[7f]
Section 8 codes
Section 9 codes
Section a codes
Section b codes
Section c codes
Section d codes
Section e codes
Section f codes
[80]
[90]
[a0]
[b0]
[c0]
[d0]
[e0]
[f0]
[81]
[91]
[a1]
[b1]
[c1]
[d1]
[e1]
[f1]
[82]
[92]
[a2]
[b2]
[c2]
[d2]
[e2]
[f2]
[83]
[93]
[a3]
[b3]
[c3]
[d3]
[e3]
[f3]
[84]
[94]
[a4]
[b4]
[c4]
[d4]
[e4]
[f4]
[85]
[95]
[a5]
[b5]
[c5]
[d5]
[e5]
[f5]
[86]
[96]
[a6]
[b6]
[c6]
[d6]
[e6]
[f6]
[87]
[97]
[a7]
[b7]
[c7]
[d7]
[e7]
[f7]
[88]
[98]
[a8]
[b8]
[c8]
[d8]
[e8]
[f8]
[89]
[99]
[a9]
[b9]
[c9]
[d9]
[e9]
[f9]
[8a]
[9a]
[aa]
[ba]
[ca]
[da]
[ea]
[fa]
[8b]
[9b]
[ab]
[bb]
[cb]
[db]
[eb]
[fb]
[8c]
[9c]
[ac]
[bc]
[cc]
[dc]
[ec]
[fc]
[8d]
[9d]
[ad]
[bd]
[cd]
[dd]
[ed]
[fd]
[8e]
[9e]
[ae]
[be]
[ce]
[de]
[ee]
[fe]
[8f]
[9f]
[af]
[bf]
[cf]
[df]
[ef]
[ff]
Well hopefully these tables helped someone, else I just wasted my time writing them for no reason.
9. Imgur albums with examples:
I have made a few Imgur albums dedicated to the different sections to give users an idea of how the different names look with the codes. All the albums will have a neutral name without any codes on to show the difference.
The table here was mainly to have the albums in one convenient place. There is also a link to the albums in each section respectively.
10. Final words:
Thank you so much for reading! I dedicated a bunch of time to making this, especially since my brwser crashed halfway through writting it the first time around because my dumbass installed some sketchy software and it ate all my ram, which caused all my work to go to waste. I will end the post here by saying; if you have anything to add, let me know and I'll add it to the post and give you the proper credits! I'm always looking to expand, so if you know a code I don't know of, shoot it at me. I'm really damn tired right now, so I'll hop off and answer comments and such tomorrow (if anyone decides to comment aha). Also, please ignore any misspellings, English isn't my native language and I'm pretty self aware about my spelling, which causes me to misspell even more. Also, rip mobile users, this post is pretty much a hell to read for you. I'm sorry.
11. nsFAQ (not so Frequently Asked Questions):
In this section I will outline a few things that I have either figured out after posting, or things I simply forgot to add (both of which I don't know where exactly to put). Q: Can I use this anywhere else besides my name? A: Yes you can! Anywhere in the game where you have the ability to input text you can do it! Meaning you can really outline your message in multiplayer rooms by combining a few of the codes above (I can't remember if you have the ability to write text anywhere else, but I suppose that if you can, these codes will work). I personally rock a message that looks like this: [b][i][u]ONLY 99LUCK. (In-game: "ONLY 99LUCK" with an underline). In the multiplayer rooms you have a bit more freedom, since there is a 20 character limit instead of the tiny 8 when choosing a name. Q: Will I be banned for using these? A: No, this is Hexadecimal and BB codes which simply changes your name/text apperence, there's no reason for Bandai to ban players having a name with a code in it. I even know someone that found one of the opacity codes by accident, and has been rocking with it for almost 3 years now. This is all I have for now, but I will add more as I'm made aware of new things, or remember new stuff.
Edits:
EDIT: Just posted this. Apparently some of the results doesn't work proberly, so I've refered to the Imgur album instead to look at it. EDIT2: Just realized the "fun names" results doesn't work. I've listed it as "try it yourself!". EDIT3: Fixed a misspelling. EDIT4: Added a bad TL;DR outlining what you should read/skim over to get the gist over everything. Added a "rip/sorry mobile users" message in Section 10 - Final words. Edited name of Section 8 to better reflect findings by user below. Added the findings of iramd24 under "Section 2 - Fade/Opacity codes" and "Section 8 - (Thanks man!). Added a "nsFAQ" (not so Frequently Asked Questions) outlining a few datails I overlooked when writing and don't know where else to put.
A comparison of four visual story apps: Choices, Arcana, Lovestruck and Chapters
I decided to write up a chart comparing four of the visual story games I've played and how they compare in some respects. Not going to try and judge the writing quality of the games, while Chapters is obviously the least-quality on this metric I'll leave it to everyone to decide quality among the other three. I'm not trying to rank any one as better than the other! I think it should be pretty evident from my comparison that all of them have strengths and weaknesses. There are a couple more games coming out (Storyscape is probably the most anticipated one) but they're still changing things so I didn't include them. I also didn't include Episode because I honestly have no clue which stories are featured / written by their team and I know most people don't play the "official" stories anyway, so it's kinda pointless to compare. These four games are:
Choices: Stories You Play by Pixelberry Studios (Choices)
The Arcana: A Mystic Romance by Nix Hydra (TheArcana)
Lovestruck: Choose Your Romance by Voltage (Lovestruck)
Chapters: Interactive Stories by Crazy Maple Studio (Chapters)
Since all of these apps have different names for the same things, I tried to standardize the terminology...
Series: A unique story setting and characters.
Book: A part of the story set in the series (also known as "routes" for Arcana and Lovestruck).
Chapter: A part of a book that needs a "pass" to play.
Passes: The in-game currency that allows you to play a new chapter.
Gems: The in-game currency that allows you to make "premium" choices in chapters.
CG: An in-game image featuring characters from the game.
Choices: Stories You Play
The Arcana: A Mystic Romance
Lovestruck: Choose Your Romance
Chapters: Interactive Stories
Release Date (App Store)
8/17/2016
10/22/2016
3/1/2017
10/27/2017
App Store Age Rating
12+
12+
17+
17+
Passes are Called
Keys
Keys
Tickets
Tickets
Maximum Number of Passes
2
3
2
2
Pass Regeneration Rate
3 hours
4 hours
2.5 hours
2 hours
Gems are Called
Diamonds
Coins
Hearts
Diamonds
MC Visual Customization?
Yes
No
No
Yes
MC Gender
Majority female (several stories have male options)
Male/Female/Non-binary
Female-only
Almost all female (1 male-only story)
LI Gender
Majority male (all but 1 story have at least 1 female LI)
3 Male, 2 female, 1 non-binary
Male/Female (new releases are 50/50, 2 non-binary)
Almost all male (2 female LI stories)
Watch Ads to Earn Gems?
Yes
Yes (beta)
No
Yes
Play Games to Earn Gems?
No
Yes
No
No
Check-in Daily to Earn Gems?
Yes
Yes
Yes* (daily puzzle piece)
Yes
Play Chapters to Earn Gems?
Yes
No
Yes* (Romantic Quests)
No
Number of Unique Series
35+
1 (6 books)
14
100+
Series Types
Both continuing series and stand-alones
1 continuing series
Almost all continuing series (several stand-alones)
Almost all stand-alones (two continuing series)
Average Chapters in Book
~15-18
22 (full)
12 (19 for earlier books)
~18-20
Average Choices per Book
~10-15
~7-15
~3-6
~7-15
Can You Collect CGs?
No* (they exist, but you can't collect them in one place)
Yes
Yes
No
Do Choices Affect the Story?
Yes
Yes (upright/reversed endings)
No* (some older books have thrilling/passionate endings)
No
Are Series in Same Universe?
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
MC/LI Choices
Choices is really the main one here that allows you to change your MC's look. Most Chapters looks are just different skin tones or hairstyles, while the MCs in Lovestruck are set in appearance and have their own backstory. There are no MC visuals in the Arcana at all, and none in some of the older Lovestruck books.
For WLW players, both Choices and Lovestruck are obvious winners here, but many Choices books only have a single female LI while all the new Lovestruck books have multiple female LIs with different personalities. Also since the MCs in Lovestruck are always bi females, the female LIs in the game have much more WLW-specific dialogue than Choices.
The older Lovestruck books only have one female LI each but the new ones have an equal amount of male and female LIs.
There are two Chapters WLW books, and both of them came out when the app had just launched, and there haven't been any new ones since then.
For MLM players, Choices is kinda the only game in town here if you want visuals, I think. You can play as male in the Arcana with the three male LIs but there's no visual customization, just pronouns. Chapters has a single MLM story that was released a while ago and they have not made any new ones since.
For non-binary players, the Arcana is the only game that lets your MC go by "they/them."
Only two games have non-binary love interests: Lovestruck has two (Cyprin and JD) and Arcana has one (Asra, goes by he/him).
Earning Passes/Gems
I think the Arcana is probably the easiest one to earn in-game gems for, since there are so many ways to earn them. Heart Hunter, watch ads (if you have the beta feature), sell trinkets from the spin, win gems from the spin. Chapters is pretty easy too since you can watch a ton of ads for gems.
The hardest one to earn in-game gems for is probably Lovestruck. Their choices cost more (~20+) and you can only get gems by playing Romantic Quests, which give max five gems in an ten-hour period. The daily puzzle piece technically gives you gems too but it's so slow it might as well not count.
You can also buy a chapter outright in Arcana, which means you unlock all of its premium choices and you don't have to use passes to play that chapter. Theoretically if you have enough coins you can buy an entire book outright and replay it over and over again without ever using passes or gems for it ever again. It's a great option that I wish more of the other apps would adopt.
Chapters regularly lets you read a random book without using up any passes, for 24 hours. Arcana recently also had a weekend where no passes were needed to read books at all. Not sure if they're going to do it again in the future though.
Both Arcana and Lovestruck actually allow you to earn passes through other means than waiting for the timer.
Gameplay
I know a lot of people complain that choices in Choices often don't change the story, but they still do in some (Endless Summer!). Arcana choices affect whether you get the upright/reversed endings for a LI, which are very different story endings!
On the other hand, choices in Lovestruck basically never affect the main story line. Some of the older books have passionate/thrilling endings (like Astoria) that get unlocked with your choices, but the new ones never have these endings. Same with Chapters.
None of these apps offer Telltale or Life is Strange-level choice effects where even minor answers can change what happens later in the game. It's probably too much to ask...
Both Arcana and Lovestruck allow you to collect CGs from LI interactions and you can view them in a gallery later. Choices has what could be considered "CGs" but there's nowhere to view them. If you don't screenshot the moment you'll have to replay the chapter again to see it. Both of these games have a mixture of free and premium CGs that you have to use gems to get, but there are many more free ones on Lovestruck.
Chapters has a "Card Cabinet" where you collect character cards, etc. It's kinda like Steam cards that you earn while playing, though some of the cards require premium choices to be made to unlock.
Arcana also allows you to collect postcards featuring characters through their Heart Hunter mini-game, but not through the main story line.
The age rating really affects the romantic content of the books. Chapters is the most explicit (sometimes really badly so) in scenes, Lovestruck can be pretty direct about things and themes, while the other two tend to rely on implied actions. (other than Bloodbound in Choices lol)
Arcana has the least typos (almost none, I feel), Choices and Lovestruck have a few occasionally, and Chapters books often have a bunch.
Choices and Chapters both have premium choices using gems to get better looks for your MC; Lovestruck has them for a couple of the older books but they no longer do that for the new ones. Arcana has no MC visuals.
Chapters' regular gem choices are the worst because out of all of these games it's the one that most often makes you spend gems just to say something that isn't stupid, and it barely affects anything.
Lovestruck and Chapters both have the ability to write and see in-game reviews of books.
Stories & Genres
Arcana and Lovestruck are best at continuing their existing series. If you start a route, chances are you can play that route for a while with the same story and LI. The big exception is Villainous Nights for Lovestruck which ended abruptly (I think because the writer left) but they recently started Juliette's route so who knows.
Choices is also pretty good about sequels as a whole though they don't go past three books per series anymore. It also seems obvious to me that they're making more stand-alones than in the past, probably because of financial cutbacks.
Chapters is almost completely stand-alones: Lux and Vampire Girl are their only series, I think.
All except Chapters also have some sort of broader fictional universe that all their stories tie into. Arcana is the most obvious example since all the stories take place in literally the same city and the characters show up in each others' books. Lovestruck and Choices both have cross-over scenes (Villainous Nights MC and Andi staying in Aurora's room/Pride 2019, Kaitlyn showing up on AME, etc.).
Chapters adapts books from a bunch of different sources and authors, so they don't even try on this one.
In terms of genres I'm really going to only compare examples from three of them since Arcana is effectively one big story that's a mixture of fantasy and mystery:
Genre
Choices
Lovestruck
Chapters
Action
The Heist: Romance, Most Wanted
Gangsters in Love, Villainous Nights
Bad Boy Blues
Fantasy
The Crown & The Flame, The Elementalists
Love & Legends, Reigning Passions
Robin Hood
Historical
A Courtesan of Rome, Desire & Decorum
Speakeasy Tonight
50 Ways to Ruin a Rake
Horror
It Lives Series
N/A
N/A
Mystery
Veil of Secrets
Castaway
Dirty Little Secrets, Uninvited
Paranormal
Bloodbound, Nightbound
Havenfall is for Lovers
Lux, Love at Stake
Science Fiction
Across the Void
Starship Promise
Court of Nightfall, The Wandering Earth
It kinda seems to me that Choices is really the only game in town for horror, and probably historical too since Lovestruck's only historical series (Speakeasy Tonight) ended a long time ago and Chapters' aren't really that thorough. Science fiction does not seem to be popular on any platform sadly.
If you're just looking for (straight) romance, it's hard to beat Chapters since almost every book is a romance book and they have just so many stand-alone series.
History
All the apps have very different histories about how they came about.
Lovestruck is technically the oldest here, since some of their stories were first released as stand-alone apps that later got merged into one app in 2017. Speakeasy Tonight was released all the way back in 2013, Astoria in 2015, etc. The company Voltage is based in Japan with an American subsidiary.
Choices released in August 2016 but the PB team had published two other games (High School Story and Hollywood U) before it with a similar (short) episodic format, and also Surviving High School with EA even before that. They are now a subsidiary of Nexon, a Korean company.
Arcana got its beginning through Kickstarter three years ago - unfortunately apparently some people still haven't gotten their rewards... Nix Hydra is still an independent game studio as far as I can tell and the only one without a parent company based in Asia.
Chapters came out a year or so after Choices and they clearly in the beginning copied a lot of how that app works, right down to the wording of certain choices. The company is ChineseAll USA Corp, based in China, and the US subsidiary is based out of Sunnyvale. That being said, their app now has more unique features and mechanics to keep people playing.
Demographics
Here's a chart by gendesexual orientation for which game gives you the most options / fits a particular demographic best in my opinion:
So, Mass Effect: Andromeda... Disappointed would be a very good start to describe just how I felt about the whole game and its potential. Having replayed it to the point where I got the platinum trophy and nearly a level eighty Ryder, I feel like the game itself is good and fun. The new combat feels far more fluid and is a significant change to the corridor shooters of Mass Effect 2 and 3 and the addition of the jet pack was definitely fun for when I wanted my BroRyder to look like Tony Stark and my FemRyder to look like... Well, Toni Stark I guess. The new powers were fun and the way you could chain combos together really made you feel like you were commanding the team and the wins of the group were due to you and your tactical mind something I felt was missing for Shepard's combos. The big point I think we were missing with Andromeda was the story though. The main group of characters were fine and they could all compliment one another and your Ryder but I feel like they could have been more. If we use Mass Effect 1 as an example, we have a group of six soldiers for squad mates and out of those six, four of them are aliens and brand new characters and people for us to discover as we played the game. So, with Andromeda, we got a similar squad size but out of the six, we only get one new race to fully explore. This is the first big thing I would change in the game and the way it is set up, the only thing I would change with the main game, and what is coming up in the story, (Ooh spoilers!) is that I would ditch Liam, purely because I like him the least, and add in a kett companion. Crazy idea right? But no more crazy than adding a geth into Shepard's suicide squad in my opinion. I actually think the starting point of Andromeda, strange faces and all, is really good. I love how the Arks look and the lived in, Star Trek type feel that it shows off. The sibling being taken out of the game right away is also a really fun point that instantly humanises your Ryder and gets you into their shoes. I mean, I can't imagine what it would be like having any of my brothers be stuck in a coma but I'm sure I would be a total mess and we need to see that be more of a deal for Ryder because I feel like in the main game everything just sort of falls into place as a set of lucky coincidences and as soon as the human Ark docks with the Nexus we don't see our new Citadel in the beat up shape it was in when it first arrived and the lights are on and all of the systems are working again. I think seeing a beat up Nexus would be a good, interesting point especially if you levelling the Nexus up could actually affect the game and story. This is something I always enjoy doing in games myself and seeing it be a thing in my game would really make me happy. Imagine levelling the military aspect of the Andromeda Initiative and when you next dock the Tempest, there are more armed guards littered around the Nexus, or you put some points into the merchants and trading deals and inside the main lobby of the Nexus you can see more stalls popping up and offering you more things to spend your hard plundered credits on. Back to the story, I think the first couple of missions with the Ark and then landing on Habitat 7 were really fun but this was where the first story misstep happened. I, personally, would keep SAM being able to help fix the remnant tech and help bring the viability of a damaged planet as a thing but I would also give it more of a consequence. The kickback won't be the cause of death for Alec Ryder but it will break his back and put him in the state where Alec Ryder has to transfer the rites of Human Pathfinder to his son/daughter and the player character. Cora, will stay the same as she is, annoyed at the fact that she was passed up but eventually will grow to accept that Alec was right to give the title to Scott/Sara and she worked a lot better as the second in command. So, after dealing with Habitat 7 and arriving at the broken down Nexus, Alec Ryder and Scott/Sara Ryder are introduced to the main characters of the Nexus, Addison's tired face is probably not going to be a thing though. Sorry memers. Once that is through, we have something of an idea that the possible liveable worlds do exist out there and the possibility of the Initiative doing something now that they are in Andromeda and now they can live somewhere inside of Heleus. I would also use this point to ensure that the game only takes place inside of the Heleus Cluster and there will be no jumping from system to system. I get why they decided to give us an entire new galaxy to explore but inside of this galaxy there are only three other new species to discover? That seems very unlikely to me personally. We could go one of two ways here in saying that there was some sort of galactic genocide that wiped out most of the life in Heleus but I think that sounds a lot like the Reapers and with what I'm planning, we already have another nod towards the original trilogy so let's go with the second option and just lock the first game of Andromeda into one single solar system and maybe give it a second sun to make it look more science fiction-ey. So, while the planets Eos, Voeld, Havarl and all the other planets you needed to hit 100% viability on will basically have the same story, the main story missions like the Archon's ship and hitting the centre on Voeld will be significantly different. I think one of the issues I had with the game was just how quickly the game adapted to humanity and the rest of the milky way inhabitants got to be in control and be such a big part of Heleus and as invaders essentially, we should be treated with significant caution. So, one of the big points I'd make with Andromeda, since we're only dealing with the Milky Way aliens and then the additions of the two Andromeda species in the kett and angara we should really focus on those last two and make a big deal with them. I would use the mission on Voeld with the kett holding centre being the main launching point for the big point for the story. At this point in the main game, Jaal, or whoever is the angaran squad member, will be forced to be a part of Ryder's team to assault the centre. This is going to be important later. The mission plays off as it does in the main game, complete with the team finding out that the kett are genetically modified angara and that is why the kett are stealing angarans and also why several Milky Way species have gone missing as well. The team gets to the end of the centre and having kicked the crap out of the Cardinal in the exaltation facility, we get a lovely little exposition chat from him but we get one important detail. Cardinal: Tell me Pathfinder, just what have the angaran told you about our war? Ryder: They told me enough. They told me that you are bullies, picking on them because they weren't interested in fighting back. Cardinal: Is that what they said? Let me tell you- The Cardinal is then shot through the head by an off screen gun, the camera reveals that the shot was fired by the Moshae who has a knowing look on her face. She lowers the gun and greets Jaal and the Pathfinder, the team leave the exaltation facility, bombing the whole place or leaving it up so that the Milky Way can offer more good faith in ferrying out the mind wiped angaran and other species who were ready for the exaltation process. The story moves on to Havarl with the intention to clean it up and free it so that the angaran can move back there as well as using Aya as their species capital. Moving through the planet and doing plenty of side missions such as finding the lead on the turian ark and whatever, the final big mission on Havarl is an encounter with a huge team of Kett soldiers, I'm thinking a massive fortress type of thing. As you clean through the fortress, you find that the leader of the building has vanished and you are left with a computer and one blinking light. Activating the console, you find that the kett have left you an AI message that offers up some very interesting details involving the angara and kett. The information suggests that the angara and kett used to be very close and the whole reason why so many of them are so closely related. The kett are suggesting that the angara have a secret that they don't want to let out into the galaxy because they are ashamed of it. Taking the information back, Ryder and the team discuss what the next plan is when Kallo lets Ryder know that they have a waiting video-call. Ryder dismisses the team, or rather, they dismiss themselves, and Ryder takes the call. Looking at the screen, Ryder is amazed to see the Archon himself looking at them. They have a conversation and the Archon lets Ryder know that he wants to discuss peace terms with the Moshae but he wants to make sure that things are legitimate. So, he is sending over one of his own people who can be picked up at a certain location. Picking up the kett squad member, the tension between the kett and the angaran squad member should come off as very obvious. Moving on to Elaadaan or Kadara, there are a couple more missions before the big story mission comes up. The kett and angara have decided on a location for the possible peace talks and they want it on neutral ground. The Nexus. Ryder and the Tempest return and we can already see that the Nexus is starting to look more alive and as they disembark, they are greeted by Alec Ryder who is in a sort of Christopher Pike style wheelchair but he has a smile on his face at least. The two walk together and towards the elevator that will take them to the peace talks room near the bottom of the space station and as they move, Alec talks about how he failed the Ryder siblings and how he was so focused on saving their mother, he completely ignored his children. He basically apologises and says he is so proud of the Ryder Pathfinder. Ryder has the dialogue wheel choice that probably looks something like this. [Humour] I guess this is a good time to ask if we can go trick or treating then? [Good] Thanks dad, I appreciate it. [Heart] I love you dad. [Anger] Little late for twenty six years dad. When the Ryders get to the peace talks, they can see that the angaran and kett are already spending their time scowling at each other and skulking up and down the long conference table and not threatening each other but they might as well be. When the Ryders arrive, the conference gets going and progress starts to be made right up until one of the kett mentions the two coming together again. The peace talks start to break down, angry words start to be exchanged and while Alec tries to calm them down, one of the angaran breaks out a weapon that they smuggled into the talks and opens fire on the kett. Killing the entire kett peace talks team as well as wounding the Archon, the angara are ready to wipe them out completely when the Archon speaks. His head rolls to the side and he looks over to Ryder, his eyes wet and tears streaking down his cheeks as he coughs and splutters. Archon: Ryder... We are guilty of the crimes they have accused us of. We only did it though because of what they did to us. All we wanted was to live, we wanted to please our masters and serve them. All we wanted was for them to be happy and to let us live. Our people worked to put them on the pedestal they believed they should be on and when they changed their minds, they tried to execute us. Our scientists found a way to make their dead work for us. The angara glassed our home world, they shot our children in their nests and they murdered our elderly and infirm. What the angara did to us was not an act of war, it was a massacre. So, we defiled their dead and it changed the war. It made us stronger and we were able to fight back. Those cowards realised that the war was changing and started to give worlds up to us. Just in time for you to arrive and fight their war for them. Ryder, please, I beg you... If I do die here at least make sure that my people live. Do not buy into their lies any more. So, a little bit of a copy from Vegeta’s confession in the Frieza saga of Dragon Ball Z, and by a little bit, I of course mean a total copy. It’s not my stuff admittedly, but I think it could be an interesting take on the whole classic angle of ‘We hate these people because of reason x, y or z’. So, with that revelation, Ryder is left on the Tempest with the crew assembled and the kett and angaran squadmates being kept apart by force if necessary but there is definite tension in the air and the two are staring daggers at each other. Here, Ryder really starts to stand out as a leader of their people and makes sure that both members of the team are aware that if they are going to be staying on the Tempest they have to behave themselves. As the discussion is sort of stalling, Kallo lets the Pathfinder know that there is a message coming through from the kett command. Ryder dismisses the crew and takes the call, it’s then that Ryder finds out that the kett are going to be moving together to take the Binary choices: The first outpost on Eos Military or Scientific? Siding with the kett or angara? Killing the other alien member of the team or letting them live? Who do you take to the bone zone? How does the galaxy look when the final fight is over? Are we setting up a democratic union or is Heleus in need of an iron hand? Does the Nexus accept the survivors of the angara or kett with regards to an embassy or are they to stay in orbit of the station? DLC Because this is EA we're talking about so of course they’re going to monetise my thoughts. £3.99/$4.99 Pack #1: Ryder Snr's training wheels programme A short pack with this one, a new set of weapons, an armour kit and a fun new member of the squad in your sibling joining the team. This will be a series of horde mode where you get a ranking based on how you, and your team, does in the challenge. If you manage to reach level twenty or hit a specific points threshold then you will be granted the rank of N7, just like Alec Ryder and you get another feather in your cap as well. This could be played at any real point in the game but would only activate after both the angaran and kett join the team. £7.99/$9.99 Pack #2: Two minutes to midnight So the first story pack. This is going to expand the story on what's been happening with the remnant, where they went and what they were doing. The story comes out that the vaults are all linked for one specific reason and while they can transform a planet into a brand new, liveable biome, they can also destroy. SAM has been working on some specific algorithms with some of the brightest minds on the Nexus and they have worked out that there is a countdown and it is coming sooner than any of them would want. With a new moon area to discover, the team find out that the countdown is leading to the return of an alien race that wishes to reset anything that is incorrect in Heleus. Incorrect such as five planets being terraformed to a brand new setting. This would really lead to Andromeda 2 and the arrival of what could be the Andromeda equivalent of the Reapers and gives everything in Heleus something new to want to kill. There wouldn't be any new weapons with this pack, maybe add some remnant gear in to spruce it up though. This would be played, ideally, just before the final encounter though could also be played any other time too. £7.99/$9.99 Pack #3: The final piece The DLC we all thought we were going to get. I would lead with there being geth stowaways on board and that was what set off the fights on the ark. When we receive the news of the ark, we only know that the ship is in trouble. So, the crew dock with the ark, get the news that there are geth stowaways and maybe add some batarians or vorcha in so the team has something else to kill. One other point I would make about this DLC is that we actually get a canonised face for the quarians. Make up some scientific mumbo jumbo about the time spent travelling to Heleus has strengthened their immune system or something. This is the only other DLC that I would put some choices involved in. Do you: Use stun rounds and move forward non-lethally or use full force? Let the troublemakers stay or do you exile them? Okay... So this is definitely a lot longer than I thought it was going to be. I guess let me know what you think, whether you agree, whether you would change something or if you just wanted to chat about Mass Effect Andromeda too I would be more than happy to discuss it!
[OC] Building an NFL Draft Model using Machine Learning
Happy Sunday nfl. Like most of the users here, I get draft-obsessed every February when the Combine comes around. Well, this year I decided to do something about it by building a draft model. If you're not interested in the details, you can stop right here and click the links below.
Model outputs from validation can be viewed here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-ooQ4UTafyFOTWDtbYGmPgdHfspY8bci45tUS6I5-LU/edit?usp=sharing Album of select draft prospect profiles: https://imgur.com/a/SCdkLj1 I've created some simple player visual dashboards which present position-specific percentile rankings in performance and athleticism. Each of these refer to either neutralized statistics, or engineered features, so "Tackles" is more accurately "Neutralized Tackles per Game" and "Speed" is actually "Speed Score". If anyone has requests to see other players, let me know and I'll try to cover all of them.
Research Goal
To build an NFL draft model capable of producing meaningful player predictions. I had originally planned to do so using a fuzzy Random Forest trained on NFL Combine and Pro Day physical measurements, individual and team college statistics, and engineered features. The model produced superior results when treating physical measurements as crisp rather than fuzzy, which was surprising but nonetheless forced me to change my approach. Random Forest model is appropriate for this dataset because of the relatively small number of observations (roughly 250-300 players per draft class) and the highly non-linear relationship between the input and output variables. Random Forests are fairly robust against overfitting, which is a concern when modelling noisy data. Player performance is impacted by round and team selection in the draft - first-round selections receive more opportunities than seventh-round selections, different schemes fit some players better. Because of this the model performance can be greatly improved by including some regression to draft selection or, in the case of test data, public rankings.
Model Output
I've decided to take the novel approach of using player ratings from EA Sports' Madden video game franchise as a proxy for player production, skill, and value. This is beneficial for a number of reasons. The first is that these ratings provide continuous output on a consistent scale across both years and positions; a player rated 99 overall is considered to be elite at their position, regardless of the unique responsibilities or challenges in quantifying performance specific to that position. The second reason is that Madden ratings predate modern quantitative evaluative metrics like those provided by Football Outsiders or Pro Football Focus. Madden ratings explained - https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/madden/# Overall ratings are calculated using position-specific formulas that weight individual attributes like speed, strength, and tackling. Ratings are updated each year through a Bayesian-like process of weighing new information to update old. To aggregate ratings for each player, I use a 5-part mean which includes ratings in Years 1-4 and Peak rating. NFL rookie contract length is 4 seasons (along with a fifth year club option for first-round picks), while the average career length in the NFL is less than 4 years. As such, when building a draft model is makes sense to only consider production accrued during the first 4 years of a player's career. Year 1 represents the Madden rating given to each player following their rookie season. For this reason, the final year for which complete data is available is the 2014 draft class (with Madden 19 providing Year 4 ratings). This decision was made to better capture NFL success, as rookie player ratings are highly dependent on draft order. For example, in Madden 2008 rookie #1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell was awarded an overall rating of 82, just 1 point lower than #3 overall pick Joe Thomas. The next year, Russell's rating was 83, while Thomas was a 97 overall. By Madden 2010, Russell was given a rating of 72 overall, while Thomas maintained his 97 overall rating. Year 3 and Year 4 ratings have been given double weight for the same reason, with the added effect of lowering the ratings of players who were not able to stay in the league for at least 4 years. While this metric on the whole does a good job of ranking player talent and production, it is blind to players who peaked later in their careers or those who had short careers. Notable examples of each include Eric Weddle (84.6 rating, eventual 2x All Pro, 6x Pro Bowl) and Jon Beason (95.4 rating, 1x All-Pro, 3x Pro Bowl). Weddle did not reach his peak until after re-signing with the Chargers as an unrestricted free agent prior to the 2011 season, and could have presumably reached his peak while playing for another team. Beason suffered an Achilles injury during the 2011 season and eventually lost his job with the Panthers, starting in only 26 games in the years following his rating window. Beason would have been eligible to sign as a free agent following the 2011 season had the Panthers not offered a contract extension. In the NFL, the drafting team maintains the exclusive right to employ each player for 4 years following their selection, thus it is incumbent upon the team to select and develop players who provide the most value during that period. For that reason I stand by the decision to evaluate draft selections only on a player's first 4 years in the league.
Dataset
I wrote several web scraping programs to pull data from NFL Draft Scout (an excellent resource for Combine data, and the only source I'm aware of that includes Pro Day data), Pro-Football-Reference, and CFB Reference (both Sports-Reference-operated sites, easily the best sources for football statistics in the NFL or FBS). The dataset covers the 2006-2014 draft classes and includes players who were ranked in NFL Draft Scout's top 300 in their draft year. I have removed all quarterbacks, kickers, punters, long snappers, and fullbacks due to the relatively small sample sizes or extreme specialization that each position requires. It might be valuable to evaluate these positions later – particularly quarterbacks – but for now the model focuses exclusively on 13 "skill" positions, bucketed into 7 position groups. The dataset restrictions exclude some notable players ranked outside of the top 300, both drafted and undrafted, who went on to varying degrees of success in the NFL. At the top extreme are 4-time All Pro Antonio Brown and Super Bowl LIII MVP Julian Edelman. But while many players on this list never played a down in the NFL, it is important to be aware of which players are excluded and it may be worthwhile to expand the dataset in the future. I have removed players from the dataset whose NFL careers were cut prematurely short either voluntarily or involuntarily (due to injury, not ability). These players' ratings (or lack thereof) are not representative of their production and thus only serve to complicate the dataset and confuse any modeling attempts. Examples include Aaron Hernandez, Gaines Adams, and Chris Borland. The list is as long as it is depressing. There is also a subset of players who drastically changed position upon entering the league. This is contrary to less extreme position changes (tackle to guard, cornerback to safety), which occur frequently. These players have been removed because their college statistics create noisy data. Examples: Denard Robinson, Devin Hester, J.R. Sweezy.
College Statistics
College statistics have been collected and cleaned at the FBS level from Sports Reference. Using college statistics is important because they provide information on a player's in-game performance. However, college football styles vary greatly among teams and have changed over time. Therefore we must control for differences in pace and style of play when considering college numbers. Rather than attempt to fit a model on raw season total statistics, I've decided to use neutralized per game statistics under the following parameters:
Receiving statistics have been normalized to 30 team pass attempts per game
Rushing statistics have been normalized to 35 team rush attempts per game
Sacks/Interceptions/Passes Defended normalized to 30 opponent pass attempts per game
Tackles/TFL/Fumbles normalized to 65 opponent offensive plays per game
Regression to position-specific mean as function of percentage of team games played
To illustrate this point let's look at Calvin Johnson and Michael Crabtree, who were both highly productive college wide receivers selected early in the first round.
The two statlines appear very similar without context. It's easy to make this distinction empirically, but little effort has been made to translate college statistics into more informative data. Johnson and Crabtree put up similar overall numbers, but Crabtree did it in an air raid style offense that relied heavily on passing while Johnson played on a more balanced offense.
Georgia Tech (2006): 368 total team pass attempts (26 per game)
Texas Tech (2008): 662 total team pass attempts (51 per game)
When we neutralize both players' statistics, we can better compare each player's level of production.
Calvin Johnson (neutralized): 6.2 catches, 97.6 yards, 1.2 TD
Michael Crabtree (neutralized): 4.4 catches, 52.8 yards, 0.9 TD
Compare those numbers to each player's NFL career statistics:
Calvin Johnson (NFL per game): 5.4 catches, 86.1 yards, 0.6 TD
Michael Crabtree (NFL per game): 4.5 catches, 53.0 yards, 0.4 TD
This is a cherry-picked example but it does well to show that while raw statistics are not to be trusted, college data when put into the proper context can be made more predictive. On a larger scale, we can compare RMSE of the model when including raw college statistics compared to pace- and schedule-neutralized statistics. Controlling for strength of schedule does not improve the predictiveness of the model, but controlling for pace and style of play does have a significant effect.
Neutralization
RMSE
Raw per Game
8.065
Pace-Neutralized per Game
8.029
Pace- and Schedule-Neutralized per Game
8.058
Here's the full stat list, with a few notable performers:
Offensive Statistics
Rushing Attempts (Andre Williams, Kevin Smith)
Rushing Yards (Matt Forte, Ray Rice)
Rushing TD (Toby Gerhart, Ahmad Bradshaw)
Receptions (Greg Jennings, Zach Ertz)
Receiving Yards (Hakeem Nicks, Jarvis Landry)
Receiving TD (Demaryius Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins)
Scrimmage Yards
Total Offensive TD
Non-Offensive TD (C.J. Spiller, Maurice Jones-Drew)
Defensive Statistics
Tackles (Luke Kuechly, Patrick Willis)
Run Stuffs (Navorro Bowman, Aaron Donald)
Sacks (Elvis Dumervil, Whitney Mercilus)
Total TFL (Ryan Kerrigan, Brandon Graham)
INT (Eric Weddle, Earl Thomas)
Passes Defended (Dee Milliner, J.J. Watt)
Fumbles Forced
Fumbles Recovered
Non-Offensive TD (Tyrann Mathieu, Darrelle Revis)
NFL Combine and Pro Day Measurements
The final major inputs of the draft model are the physical measurements taken at the NFL Combine and university Pro Days. Pro Day measurements are harder to come by due to their decentralized and often scarcely reported nature. Fortunately, NFL Draft Scout has maintained a database of reported Pro Day measurements spanning the years in our dataset. There is an enormous benefit in using Pro Day measurements in a model like this. It allows for a larger training set by including data on players who were not invited to the NFL Combine, but also provides much more complete data because not all players who attend the combine perform the full slate of workouts. This lessens the need for imputation and reduces uncertainty. However, there is bias observed in Pro Day measurements. Pro Days are typically scheduled in the weeks following the NFL Combine, giving players more time to train for the specific physical events. Furthermore, they often take place at the players' home campuses in environments in which the players feel more comfortable. Lastly, many events (most notably the 40-yard dash) are hand-timed at Pro Days, leading to better reported times than the electronic times at the Combine. Each of these factors contributes to improvement in every event among the population of players who participated both at the NFL Combine and at their university Pro Day.
Players who participated in both NFL Combine and Pro Day
Measurement
Combine
Pro Day
n
Sigma
Adjustment
40 Yard Dash
4.80
4.70
831
0.076
+ 0.07
20 Yard Split
2.79
2.71
733
0.065
+ 0.06
10 Yard Split
1.68
1.62
739
0.057
+ 0.04
Bench Press
20.0 reps
21.7 reps
254
2.556
- 1.2
Vertical Jump
31.7"
33.6"
593
2.342
- 1.3"
Broad Jump
112.9"
115.2"
481
4.356
- 1.6"
20 Yard Shuttle
4.46
4.42
424
0.155
+ 0.03
3 Cone Drill
7.34
7.22
342
0.223
+ 0.08
In order to correct for this bias, I've (somewhat arbitrarily) chosen to shift recorded Pro Day measurements by 70% of the mean delta. Even when we correct for some of the systematic bias observed in Pro Day measurements, we must also recognize that most physical measurements aren't static. Some players aren't performing at maximum physical capacity on the day of the Combine, occasionally players injure themselves during their workout, and the measurements aren't always recorded with perfect accuracy or consistency. A dataset with this much uncertainty lends itself well to fuzzy set theory. In simple terms, this will allow us to consider not only a player's recorded 40 yard time of 4.40, but will also consider some probability that their "true" speed is 4.39 or 4.43. So when the model attempts to predict NFL success given a player's 40 yard dash time, it's not based on a singular number but rather a distribution of times centered around that number. Fuzzy Set Theory explanation - https://www.doc.ic.ac.uk/~nd/surprise_96/journal/vol4/sbaa/report.fuzzysets.html My approach is to generate a random forest model on the discrete data, then fit n iterations on randomly shuffled data to generate a distribution of outcomes for each player. This "shuffling" will occur randomly for each measurement using a normal distribution centered around the discrete number, with sigma equal to half of the standard deviations recorded above. In a single random forest, data is crisply split by decision trees based on discrete information. But with enough randomly shuffled iterations, the trees are no longer binary decisions but rather probabilistic ones centered on each measurement's distribution. This is particularly relevant for players who may have measurements near decision tree boundaries. Two players with sprint times separated by mere hundredths of a second are not appreciably different in speed, but a random forest might classify them as such. The purpose of shuffling is not to fundamentally change each player's physical characteristics, rather to acknowledge measurement uncertainty. My belief is that this will improve the model outputs over a large enough number of trials. We have a wealth of NFL Combine and Pro Day data but not every player has participated in every drill, so we'll need to fill in missing values. Because many of these physical measurements are correlated and most football positions require some degree physical specialization (size, speed, etc.), I've chosen a k nearest neighbor imputation method. The belief is that if Players A and B are similar in terms of position, size, speed, and quickness, then the two players will also have similar strength or jumping ability. The exceptions are draft age and wingspan, which can be reasonably predicted using population means.
Engineered Features
Perhaps the most essential component of a machine learning model is feature engineering. Modern feeling toward physical measurements taken at the Combine is highly dubious, and I agree that each measurement taken in isolation cannot alone adequately define athleticism, much less predict success. However, there exist more complex metrics which can better perform both tasks across a large enough sample.
Body Mass Index (BMI)
Body weight (kg) divided by squared height (meters); an attempt to measure the relative amount of mass in an individual
An attempt to measure lower body force generation using Sayers Power formula
Top performers: Mario Williams, Ndamukong Suh
Broad Jump Power
Same as Vertical Jump power, using Broad Jump
Top performers: Jamie Collins, Calvin Johnson
Quickness Score
Same as Speed Score, replacing 40-Yard Dash time with mean of 10-Yard Split, 20-Yard Shuttle, and 3 Cone Drill
Top performers: J.J. Watt, A.J. Hawk
Weight-Adjusted Bench
225 * bench press reps, divided by body weight, then adjusted by arm length; rewards player with longer arms, all else equal
Top performers: Stephen Paea, Chris Houston
Catch Radius
3-dimensional space occupied by the player. Dimension 1: height, vertical jump, arm length. Dimension 2: broad jump, distance covered at top speed. Dimension 3: wingspan, lateral quickness
Top performers: Julio Jones, Antonio Cromartie
The models also include several features designed to summarize the collection of college statistics being used.
Offensive Usage
Rushing attempts plus receptions. On a neutralized scale, this captures the same information as market share. An attempt to quantify how involved a player was in their college offense
Top performers: Percy Harvin, Matt Forte
Defensive Disruption
Defensive equivalent to usage, an attempt to quantify how active each defensive player was. The thought is that better players will make more plays
Top performers: Aaron Donald, Luke Kuechly
S&P Market Share
Combines defensive disruption with team defensive S&P+. Simply accruing defensive statistics doesn't tell whether the player was effective, so this is an attempt to link activity with effectiveness. Rewards players who played on better teams, all else equal
Top performers: Ndamukong Suh, Dont'a Hightower
Cross-Validation and Tuning
I've tuned the model using stratified k-fold cross validation, leaving out each draft class as OOB observations. As a result, every player has been included in both the training and validation sets. Each position group has been fit with its own unique hyperparameters to optimize predictions.
Hyperparameters by Position Group
Position
Number of Trees
Max Depth
Max Features
Min Leaf Samples
WR
100
5
10
3
FS
250
5
10
1
CB
50
10
20
2
SS
40
10
10
2
ILB
30
15
5
2
RB
40
10
10
1
TE
20
10
3
2
EDGE LB
50
5
10
2
EDGE DL
250
15
10
2
C
50
5
5
3
DT
100
3
10
1
OT
20
5
3
2
OG
20
10
5
2
Additionally, the model performed best when aggregating predictions from 3 randomized sets, as shown in the plot below. However, this fuzzy approach failed to outperform discrete features during cross-validation. I expected the opposite, but it seems treating each measurement as precise leads to the best fit.
RMSE Using Various Methods
Method
RMSE
Discrete
8.027
1 Random set
8.122
2 Random sets
8.069
3 Random sets
8.063
5 Random sets
8.098
10 Random sets
8.115
Results and Further Research
By and large the model does surprisingly well considering the lack of more traditional evaluative inputs. NFL teams have the resources of scouting departments providing more detailed player evaluation, experienced coaching staffs evaluating personnel fits, and front offices to balance financial considerations and positional value. Each of these factor into draft decisions and improve ranking methods beyond the scope of this model.
Model results by position
Position
RMSE
n
Most Important Features
WR
7.523
314
Underclassman, Usage, Age, Srimmage Yards, Total TD, Receiving Yards
When properly optimized, the model can achieve RMSE below 8 during cross-validation. Unsurprisingly, it struggles most with offensive linemen, who lack individual statistics. In particular it struggles with centers, whose responsibilities in the NFL are as much mental as physical. Interestingly, NFL teams have had great success evaluating centers, as 4 of the 5 first rounders were named to All-Pro teams in their careers, and all made the Pro Bowl at some point. As mentioned in the introduction, the model could be improved substantially by including draft selection or consensus rankings. Furthermore, team-specific random effects could likely explain some of the residuals. I may eventually explore these research questions, but my short-term priorities are on visualization and presentation of data.
If you've made it this far, check out my github for the source code: https://github.com/walt-king/NFL-draft-research This was created using Python for web scraping, data collection, modelling, and visuals. I used R to create the player dashboards. Comments, thoughts, and feedback all greatly appreciated.
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